Disinformation comes in many guises. In the Balkans, it often poses as a hard number.
By Vanja Stokić (Bosnia and Herzegovina), Zoran Strika (Serbia), Teodora Đurnić (Montenegro), Gentiana Paçarizi (Kosovo) and Jona Plumbi (Albania)
Speaking very similar languages and sharing history and culture, the citizens of Western Balkan countries also experience similar problems. No doubt that corruption is the most obvious among the shared problems. A close second probably comes the manner in which political and business interest groups manipulate public opinion, distorting truth with the help of numbers featuring prominently among methods of manipulation.
Numbers, percentages or projections on matters relevant to citizens are often thrown around to create an illusion of prosperity. Politicians, assisted by the media they directly or indirectly control, typically release only partial information that looks good but fails to tell the whole story. In some cases, they even make up statistical data, assuming, probably correctly, that only a few people would bother or have the skills to check the accuracy of their claims. Even when debunked, lies backed by dodgy numbers often achieve their goals thanks to the market dominance of outlets deliberately or inadvertently spreading them.
Data President
Economic data plays a crucial role in shaping the Serbian government’s approach to public opinion. However, figures are sometimes manipulated to present an overly optimistic narrative, particularly concerning GDP growth, employment rates, and salaries. The fact-checking platform Istinomer (Truth-O-Meter) recently highlighted several inaccuracies from a televised statement by President Aleksandar Vučić. He asserted that Serbia had gained 550,000 employees since he took office in 2012, that the average wage in 2012 was €329, and that more highways had been constructed than ever before. Istinomer showed that none of these claims held up to scrutiny.
The fact-checking outlet, Raskrikavanje, has consistently exposed manipulation with economic data by authorities. Journalist Marija Vučić observes that pro-government media frequently publish glowing reports about large investments and state projects, including Rio Tinto lithium mining plans, the Belgrade Waterfront construction project, and Expo 2027, all of which are highly controversial.
“The narrative fosters the perception that living standards in Serbia are better than they actually are,” Vučić explains. “Topics like poverty, working conditions, and relations between investors and workers are rarely addressed. There is little scrutiny of whether state subsidies to investors are worthwhile or of the costs associated with projects like Expo. Instead, pro-government media function as a PR branch for the Serbian government and big business, rather than serving as a public watchdog,” Marija Vučić explains.
She points out that manipulative reporting intensifies during election campaigns, highlighting a 2024 article from the Serbian Telegraph that warned of economic collapse if the opposition came to power. The article praised projects such as the Belgrade metro project and the Linglong tire factory while conveniently overlooking the controversies surrounding them. Marija Vučić argues that the government strategically uses narratives about the economy to foster the president’s personality cult.
“Vučić is depicted as an exceptionally capable and visionary leader who ensures prosperity, implying that Serbia would falter without him,” Vučić explains. “He actively reinforces this image—remember his RTS blackboard sessions breaking down economic concepts or his TV appearances filled with unverified statistics and bold predictions,” said Marija Vučić.
In 2018, President Vučić stated that the first Metro line would be ready by 2022. Few would be brave enough now to predict when it will actually be ready.
Cherry-picking
In Kosovo, the manipulation of statistics originates from various sources, including the government and unprofessional content creators on social media. Led by the Self-Determination Movement (LVV), the current administration has honed the art of crafting a narrative of unprecedented success, with selective data presentation becoming a defining feature of their communication strategy. By isolating specific metrics and portraying them as stand-alone achievements, the government creates an illusion of transformative progress. This approach not only oversimplifies complex issues but also neglects critical factors such as historical trends, external influences, and alternative interpretations essential for a comprehensive assessment of governance.

Employment has been one of the most contentious topics in Kosovo. Since the immediate post-war period, the country has faced persistently high unemployment rates, particularly among its youth, who make up a large segment of the population. According to the Kosovo Agency of Statistics (KAS), the national unemployment rate was 25.7% in 2021, dropped to 12.6% in 2022, and further improved to 10.8% in 2023. This sharp reduction over just two years has ignited significant debate in the public.
While the government touts these numbers as evidence of successful job creation and a key achievement of its administration, critics—including independent media outlets, opposition parties, and independent economic experts—have challenged this narrative. They argue that attributing the achievement solely to government-led initiatives fails to account for other contributing factors, such as the widespread emigration of Kosovo citizens to Western Europe over the past decade (some 42,000 citizens left in 2021 alone) and the formalization of existing jobs through government initiatives (particularly post-COVID-19). Likewise, the persistently high inactivity rate among working-age citizens has remained largely unchanged, remaining above 40 percent for men and above 75 percent for women over the past four years.
The government of Kosovo also claims that recent economic growth rates have been unparalleled over the past two decades. After the economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, when growth dropped to -5.3% in 2020, Kosovo’s economy rebounded strongly, recording a growth rate of 10.7% in 2021 as the country reopened. This recovery has been frequently cited by the government as a testament to its effective policies.
However, growth slowed to more moderate levels in subsequent years, with rates of 4.3% in 2022 and 3.3% in 2023. While final data for 2024 is not yet available, preliminary figures from the Central Bank of Kosovo suggest growth of around 4.9% in the first two quarters. Despite these numbers, analyses from the Central Bank of Kosovo, the World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund indicate that this economic performance does not represent a significant departure from historical trends.
Edison Jakurti, an economist who frequently debunks government claims about economic growth, argues that beyond the economic downturn of 2020, the pandemic has fundamentally altered the trajectory of Kosovo’s post-reopening growth. He contends that this becomes clear when comparing the actual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to the level that would have been achieved if pre-COVID-19 growth trends from the previous decade had continued.
According to Jakurti’s analysis of World Bank data, by 2023—more than three years after many restrictions were lifted in mid-2020—Kosovo’s economy still lagged behind its pre-pandemic growth trend.
“In other words, as of 2023, Kosovo had not fully recovered from the pandemic,” Jakurti explained in a post on his Facebook profile. “From 2020 onward, the gap between the realized GDP and the GDP projected based on pre-pandemic trends exceeds -$2 billion in real terms, with $1.3 billion of this shortfall occurring during the post-pandemic period from 2021 to 2023”, said Jakurti on his Facebook profile.

Obfuscate or simply make your own numbers
In Albania, as in many other countries, numbers are often exaggerated or selectively used to serve political purposes. Governments frequently inflate figures to paint a favorable picture of their achievements while discrediting the opposition’s record—and, of course, the opposition often does the same in reverse.
A common tactic for manipulating numbers is to overwhelm the public with large, complex calculations. One prominent example in Albania is the handling of public debt. Since the socialist government took power 11 years ago, it has heavily relied on public-private partnerships (PPPs) for nearly all major investments in the country. These contracts typically require the government to repay private companies over a span of at least 10 years.
When reporting annual public debt figures, the ruling socialists have intentionally excluded the state’s obligations under PPP contracts, allowing them to claim that public debt amounts to just 60% of GDP. However, international organizations such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) or credit ratings agencies, such as Standard & Poor’s, have calculated that Albania’s actual public debt surpasses 80%, exposing the discrepancy in the government’s reporting of key economic figures.
In Bosnia, the fact-checking media outlet Istinomjer recently highlighted a claim of the mayor of the Sarajevo municipality of Ilidza that during his term between 2022 and 2024 the number of fiscal devices increased by 17,000. In a municipality with a population of 66,000, according to the census of 11 years ago, that claim sounded incredible. By checking the data in the Tax Administration, Istinomjer learned that the number of fiscal devices in Ilidza did indeed increase, but only by 1,422.
“The numbers are manipulated more or less by everyone, but most often by politicians and the media inclined towards certain political ideas. There are many examples, from the manipulation with the levels of salaries and pensions, employment figures, energy prices, the number of inhabitants, the number of votes won… to the selective use of statistical data,” said Dalio Sijah, editor-in-chief of Istinomjer.

Mayor of Tirana, Erion Veliaj, has made a lot of effort to build an image of “the guy who plants trees”. A year into his first term as mayor of Tirana, Veliaj declared that he would build an “Orbital Forest”, a belt made of two million trees. He even announced finding financial support for his project and was seen signing an agreement with the Head of Italian Agency for Development Cooperation (IADC), Nino Merola.
Since then, he has made sure he published a photo of him planting trees with people he meets, including children. In 2022 he claimed that he had planted one million trees in Tirana. A World Bank report from 2024 said that Tirana in fact had seen a decrease in overall green cover.
Ironically, Veliaj is widely known for issuing permits for construction in nearly every available space in the capital. Over just five years, this has resulted in an astonishing 7.5 million square meters of new buildings. To justify these permits, Veliaj has offered false statistics, claiming that Tirana gains 25,000 new inhabitants annually. However, Faktoje fact-checked this claim and found that the highest number of new residents added to the capital in the past nine years was 13,000 in a single year.